In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
But they wanted to know whether Barak Obama’s historic 2012 campaign would follow the same pattern. This e-book both presents the central arguments from Timeline and updates the statistical analysis to include data from 2012.
"Offers a chronological look at U.S. presidential elections utilizing an info graphic approach"--
What is the best way to integrate the 2008 presidential election into your social studies courses? How do you evaluate an overwhelming amount of resources and possible approaches?
Larry Bartels, Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988); Audrey A. Haynes, Paul-Henri Gurian, Michael H. Crespin, and Christopher Zorn, “The Calculus of Concession: Media ...
This book for elementary readers highlights the sequence of events from the idea to implementation.
This updated 2-volume set brings together the election results of America's presidential election for the years 1920-1996.
This is the full Mueller Report, as released on April 18, 2019, by the U.S. Department of Justice.
This book will appeal to students of French politics as well as those interested in electoral behaviour and European political systems.
" This book tells you what happened, from the entry of more than one dozen Republican and Democrat candidates into the race in 2015, through the primary debates, the primary caucuses and elections, the party conventions, the presidential ...
" This book tells you what happened, from the entry of more than one dozen Republican and Democrat candidates into the race in 2015, through the primary debates, the primary caucuses and elections, the party conventions, the presidential ...