The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity
- ISBN-10
- 1423547349
- ISBN-13
- 9781423547341
- Pages
- 364
- Language
- English
- Published
- 1998
- Publisher
- Ohio State University
- Author
- Derek A. West
Description
This dissertation examined the potential use of satellite passive microwave rainfall measurements derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) constellation of polar orbiting satellites to improve eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone intensity specifying and forecasting techniques. Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I based rainfall measuring algorithm and current intensity and ensuing 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hour intensity changes from best track data records were examined in an effort to identify statistically significant rainfall related specifiers of current intensity and predictors of future intensity changes. Correlations between rainfall parameters and current intensity and future intensity changes were analyzed using tropical cyclone data from seven years, 1991 to 1997. Stratifications based upon current intensity, prior 12 hour rate of intensity change, climate, translation speed, landfall, and synoptic scale environmental forcing variables were studied to understand factors that may affect a statistical relationship between rainfall parameters and current intensity and future intensity changes. The predictive skill of statistically significant rainfall parameters was assessed by using independent tropical cyclone data from 1994 and 1995. In addition, case studies on individual tropical cyclones were conducted to gain insight on predictive performance and operational implementation issues. Impacts of these statistically significant rainfall parameters on a multiple linear regression based eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity change forecasting method under development at The Ohio State University were studied. The overall goal was to determine if SSM/I rainfall parameters could add predictive skill to an objective tropical cyclone intensity change forecast guidance product.
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