Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
ISBN-10
1437935613
ISBN-13
9781437935615
Category
Economics
Pages
44
Language
English
Published
2010
Publisher
DIANE Publishing
Authors
Athanasios Orphanides, John C. Williams

Description

What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.

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