Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index
ISBN-10
1475528515
ISBN-13
9781475528510
Category
Business & Economics
Pages
41
Language
English
Published
2012-11-02
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Authors
Ms.Era Dabla-Norris, Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

Description

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

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