From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems

From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems
ISBN-10
1475576560
ISBN-13
9781475576566
Category
Business & Economics
Pages
34
Language
English
Published
2012-02-01
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Authors
Mr. Rodolfo Maino, Mr. Kalin Tintchev

Description

This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk+, which uses analytical techniques—similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.

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