Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.
For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics.
The results of this section can be generalized, as discussed by Engel [1984], where conditions are provided to assure that the sum of two dependent Gaussian ARMA processes is ARMA. Engel further shows that if X, is Gaussian ARMA with ...
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With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the ...
Until recently a formidable gap separated practical business economists, who forecast economic growth and exchange and interest rate fluctuations, from academic researchers Academic journals focused on statistical techniques which were...
The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment - ...
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
In particular , Burns and Mitchell cited a study by Edwin Frickey to support this claim . The Frickey study is experimented with 23 different trend lines for the same series and found that the resulting cycle could range from 3 to 4 ...