How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To
- ISBN-10
- 1541604946
- ISBN-13
- 9781541604940
- Category
- Mathematics
- Pages
- 372
- Language
- English
- Published
- 2023-10-31
- Publisher
- Basic Books
- Author
- Kit Yates
Description
A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by. This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
Get the book
Similar books
-
Integral Geometry and Tomography: Proceedings of the AMS-IMS-SIAM Joint Summer Research Conference, Held June 24-30, 1989, with Support from the...
By Eric Grinberg, Eric Todd QuintoIn Section 2 we will deal with the “discrete” case. Let S be a locally finite tree T endowed with the natural integer-valued distance function: the ...
-
Ordinary Differential Equations and Linear Algebra: A Systems Approach
By Todd Kapitula... for in this case [yp](s)=s[yp](s), [yp](s)=s2[yp](s). As we will see in the examples, this assumption also makes it possible to deal with the initial ...
-
Cognition and Intractability: A Guide to Classical and Parameterized Complexity Analysis
By Iris van Rooij, Mark Blokpoel, Johan Kwisthoutx,y∈S δ(x,y) is maximum. u(x) + ADDITIVE SUBSET CHOICE Input: A set X = {x1 ,x2 ... F Tractability cycle Test 8.2 How (Not) to Deal with Intractability 173.
-
Mymathlab -- Standalone Access Card
By Pearson Education, David P Pearson Education, Hall H Pearson EducationSeveral versions of Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products exist for each title, including customized versions for individual schools, and registrations are not transferable.
-
Mymathlab Student Acc Kit + Intro Alg Wrkshts
By Inc. Pearson EducationMymathlab Student Acc Kit + Intro Alg Wrkshts
-
Pearson Mathematics 7: H.P
By Pearson Education Australia StaffPearson Mathematics homework program for Year 7 provides tear-out sheets which correspond with student book sections, providing systematic and cumulative skills revision of basic skills and current class topics in the form of take-home ...
-
Worksheets for Classroom Or Lab Practice for Intermediate Algebra: Graphs & Models
By Addison-WesleyWorksheets for Classroom Or Lab Practice for Intermediate Algebra: Graphs & Models
-
Pearson Mathematics New South Wales 8 Student Book: Australian Curriculum
By Pearson Education Australia Staff, Gael McLeod, David CoffeyThe Student Book provides an easy-to-use 'nuts and bolts' book at each year level.
-
Matrix Iterative Analysis
By Richard S. Varga... partial differential equations have received a great deal of attention. For excellent bibliographical coverage, see Todd (1956), Richtmyer (1957), ...
-
Mathematical Modelling: Education, Engineering and Economics - ICTMA 12
By C Haines, P Galbraith, W BlumTodd, P. A., McKeen, .l. ... ANALYTICAL SUPPORT PROBLEM SOLVING Cognitive Perspectives on Modelling HOW DO STUDENTS AND TEACHERS DEAL Sodhi and Son 219 NOTE ...