Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
ISBN-10
1544624395
ISBN-13
9781544624396
Series
Global Trends 2030
Pages
158
Language
English
Published
2017-03-11
Publisher
Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Author
Office of the Director of National Intelligence Council

Description

This publication covers global megatrends for the next 20 years and how they will affect the United States. This is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council's series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The authors distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. NIC 2012-001. Several innovations are included in Global Trends 2030, including: a review of the four previous Global Trends reports, input from academic and other experts around the world, coverage of disruptive technologies, and a chapter on the potential trajectories for the US role in the international system and the possible the impact on future international relations. Table of Contents: Introduction 1 Megatrends 6 Individual Empowerment 8 Poverty Reduction 8 An Expanding Global Middle Class 8 Education and the Gender Gap 10 Role of Communications Technologies 11 Improving Health 11 A MORE CONFLICTED IDEOLOGICAL LANDSCAPE 12 Diffusion of Power 15 THE RISE AND FALL OF COUNTRIES: NOT THE SAME OLD STORY 17 THE LIMITS OF HARD POWER IN THE WORLD OF 2030 18 Demographic Patterns 20 Widespread Aging 20 Shrinking Number of Youthful Countries 22 A New Age of Migration 23 The World as Urban 26 Growing Food, Water, and Energy Nexus 30 Food, Water, and Climate 30 A Brighter Energy Outlook 34 Game-Changers 38 The Crisis-Prone Global Economy 40 The Plight of the West 40 Crunch Time Too for the Emerging Powers 43 A Multipolar Global Economy: Inherently More Fragile? 46 The Governance Gap 48 Governance Starts at Home: Risks and Opportunities 48 INCREASED FOCUS ON EQUALITY AND OPENNESS 53 NEW GOVERNMENTAL FORMS 54 A New Regional Order? 55 Global Multilateral Cooperation 55 The Potential for Increased Conflict 59 INTRASTATE CONFLICT: CONTINUED DECLINE 59 Interstate Conflict: Chances Rising 61 Wider Scope of Regional Instability 70 The Middle East: At a Tipping Point 70 South Asia: Shocks on the Horizon 75 East Asia: Multiple Strategic Futures 76 Europe: Transforming Itself 78 Sub-Saharan Africa: Turning a Corner by 2030? 79 Latin America: More Prosperous but Inherently Fragile 81 The Impact of New Technologies 83 Information Technologies 83 AUTOMATION AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES 87 Resource Technologies 90 Health Technologies 95 The Role of the United States 98 Steady US Role 98 Multiple Potential Scenarios for the United States' Global Role 101 Alternative Worlds 107 Stalled Engines 110 FUSION 116 Gini-out-of-the-Bottle 122 Nonstate World 128 Acknowledgements 134 GT2030 Blog References 137 Audience: Appropriate for anyone, from businesses to banks, government agencies to start-ups, the technology sector to the teaching sector, and more. This publication helps anticipate where the world will be: socially, politically, technologically, and culturally over the next few decades. Keywords: Global Trends 2030 Alternative Worlds, global trends 2030, Global Trends series, National Intelligence Council, global trajectories, global megatrends, geopolitics, geopolitical changes

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