《李克強經濟危棋》

Description

解讀中國政府何時引爆經濟泡沫

中國像泡沫般急速膨脹的信貸，並未有效支持經濟成長，大量資金流入中看不中用的基礎建設與住房項目，無助實體經濟，只是在數百個城市，留下大量沒有人住的空屋，不太需要的公路、橋樑、購物中心、火車站、機場，以及產能過剩停擺的生產線。

種種讓人笑不出來的浪費情況，連長年看好中國的市場觀察人士，都認為中國正邁向嚴峻的經濟下行期，很可能出現無力復原的日本式經濟煉獄，房地產等資產價格崩潰（股市已反映苦況）、國民財富蒸發、外資競相出逃等系列惡果也將一一發生。

面對中國摸不著邊際的經濟危機，市場開始將焦慮目光投向應該是改革派的李克強，寄望擁有經濟學博士學位的新領導人，能夠一本務實態度，找出並落實中國經濟的特效藥。英國巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）6月底便提出“李克強經濟學”一說，敲鑼打鼓地預言，李克強應該會以大破大立的手法，態度明確地推進經濟改革。

李克強經濟學核心是：以短痛換取長期收益，先以政策將中國推向“臨時硬著陸”，未來三年的經濟年成長速度會降至3%，但之後中國經濟應能迅速反彈，保持十年6%到8%的經濟成長速度。

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