In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Not reproduced with Optical Recognition software. This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence.
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the ...
This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace.
For example, Diane Halpern considers that [critical] thinking is the use of those cognitive skills or strategies that increase the probability of a desirable outcome. It is... thinking that is purposeful, reasoned, and goal directed ...
This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, ...
In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies ...
This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence.
The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures.
This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence.
This bestseller also includes new end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, as well as material on the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers.