Preventing North Korea's Nuclear Breakout
- ISBN-10
- 1938027647
- ISBN-13
- 9781938027642
- Category
- Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes
- Pages
- 111
- Language
- English
- Published
- 2017
- Author
- Robert Litwak
Description
North Korea is on the verge of a strategic breakout that directly threatens the U.S. homeland. The United States now faces its third nuclear crisis with North Korea in 25 years. Basically, to prevent a North Korean nuclear breakout, the Trump administration has two options: a preventive military strike on North Korea's nuclear and missile infrastructure to destroy its capability to threaten the United States; or a revitalized diplomatic track to deny North Korea a breakout capability by negotiating a freeze of its nuclear and missile programs. In rejecting the use of military power, this study argues for a pivot to serious diplomacy through a strategy of coercive engagement. A new conjunction of factors creates an opportunity to achieve a freeze agreement—one that, in the near term, optimizes the interests among all the major parties. Such an interim agreement would forestall a North Korean nuclear breakout and reaffirm the goal of long-term denuclearization (the urgent U.S. interest), while preventing the collapse of the North Korean regime and the loss of a buffer state (the Chinese interest) and leaving the Kim family regime in power with a minimum nuclear deterrent (the paramount North Korean interest). This analytical option should be put to the political test through revitalized diplomacy.
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