Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-power War in the 21st Century
- ISBN-10
- 1977404626
- ISBN-13
- 9781977404626
- Category
- Balance of power
- Pages
- 30
- Language
- English
- Published
- 2020
- Authors
- Jacob L. Heim, Benjamin M. Miller
Description
There is growing concern that U.S. power has been declining relative to the growing power of Russia and China. This concern renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power, which nations have the most power, which states are gaining and losing power, and when such shifts in relative or perceived power might portend conflict. The authors explore these questions, illustrating a quantitative, scenario-based approach for policymakers who are interested in measuring the interstate balance of power, assessing the impact of shocks on the balance of power, and identifying periods during which shifts in the balance of power could portend conflict between major powers. The methodology demonstrates how different climate change scenarios, population projections, or economic growth forecasts lead to different balances of global power, then uses power cycle theory to map those changes in the distribution of global power to changes in the risk of conflict between major global powers. The authors demonstrate the potential of this methodology using three illustrative examples. They find that global power can be "sticky," meaning it takes drastic assumptions about the future to create meaningful changes in the global balance of power. Further, because their model treats global power as a relative concept, the authors find that the types of shocks that affect the risk of conflict are the types that create relative "winners" and "losers."
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