機率思考: 職業賭徒與華爾街巨鱷的高勝算思維法，面對機率、風險和不確定性的34堂防彈思考課 (二版)
- ISBN-10
- 6267191451
- ISBN-13
- 9786267191453
- Category
- Business & Economics / Strategic Planning
- Pages
- 366
- Language
- Chinese
- Published
- 2022-11-23
- Publisher
- 讀書共和國╱大牌出版
- Author
- 羅伯•麥修斯
Description
從華爾街、拉斯維加斯到商業世界，
為什麼只有５％贏家有「敢於和上帝玩骰子」的勇氣，
而９５％的人卻只能當受命運擺布的傻瓜？
★ 英國皇家統計學會研究員、《BBC Focus》專欄作家羅伯•麥修斯代表作
★ 人生賽局中，面對不確定性，高手如何做決策？當資訊超載時，
★ 該Pass？還是要All in？面對機率、風險和不確定性的「34堂防彈思考課」
★ 別讓「線性思考」與「直覺」誤導你的決策，看懂本書所謂的機率，
頂尖贏家都知道：數字會說謊，常識不可靠……
唯有學會「機率思考」，才能持續累積籌碼，取得最終勝利。
人生在世，我們永遠無法擺脫不確定性，以及隱伏其中的風險。
本書取材自日常生活，以豐沛淺白的筆觸，
●金融海嘯真是「25個標準差」的罕見事件，
●美式足球隊中的22名球員，生日相差一天的機率有多高？（
●花小錢買心安的延長保固，為什麼是商人的高獲利保證？
●準確率達80％的癌症篩檢驗出陽性，為何你還能抱持83％
●穿梭地震帶、營運逾五十年的日本新幹線，
●二戰時，圖靈破解德軍自豪的Enigma密碼機，
●數據探勘正流行，問題是，你如何辨識從數據中挖到的是金礦？
超有趣！
Step by Step揭示機率定理及其應用，
本書將幫助我們蛻變成更聰明的賽局參與者，
洞悉95％輸家無法突破的思維謬誤！
本書的目的之一，就是透過揭示機率定理及其應用，
你會讀到如何運用這些定理預測巧合，
Get the book
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