走向决裂：弱国退出同盟之谜

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同盟作為一種國際關係的重要現象和國家重要的外交行為，一直是國際關係研究的重要對象。學者對同盟的定義、類型、功能、形成、內聚力等問題都進行了深入探討，在過去的幾十年中，學者們主要把研究焦點放在了同盟形成問題之上，有關同盟解體這一問題並沒有引起學者足夠的重視，本書即聚焦於研究在共同威脅存在情況下，不對稱防禦性同盟中的弱國為什麼會選擇退出同盟，從而導致同盟解體。本書提出了一個同盟解體的雙變量理性解釋框架，即同盟效用理論。該理論提出同盟內部的戰略分歧大小決定了同盟成本的高低，而弱國的自助能力強弱決定了其同盟收益的多少。
為了驗證本書所構建理論的因果機制，本書首先進行了仔細的案例分析。通過對中蘇同盟從建立到分歧繼而分裂的全面考察，以及對中蘇同盟進行案例內求異比較，證明了本書所構建的同盟解體理論。為了表明本書研究結論的普適性，本書還初步考察了2001-2008年的美韓同盟、1958年至1967年的美法同盟以及1957年後的美英同盟，並與1958-1966年中蘇同盟進行案例間求同比較和求異比較，證明了本書所構建的同盟解體理論。
為了進一步驗證以上理論的普適性，本書構建了包含自變量戰略分歧和弱國自助能力以及控制變量體系大國數量、民主國家和國內體制變化的Cox比例風險回歸模型進行回歸分析。統計回歸分析表明自助能力和戰略分歧在對同盟解體發揮影響上是互為條件的，在自助能力強的情況下，戰略分歧對同盟解體有影響；在自助能力弱的情況下，戰略分歧對同盟解體無影響。在戰略分歧重大的情況下，自助能力強弱對同盟解體有影響；在戰略分歧微小的情況下，自助能力強弱對同盟解體無影響。統計分析結果進一步證明了本書所構建的理論及其普適性。

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