新加坡包容性服务业政策对就业效应的测度研究

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现有研究认为，随着传统贫穷国家经济的不断发展并赶上西方发达国家，国家之间的不平等程度一直在下降。 然而，几乎每个国家内部的不平等现象却在不断加深。在许多国家，随着产业结构的升级、城市化率的提高和经济的增长，失业率也在不断上升，“穷与忙”、“富与闲”并存的现象越来越严重。

面对上述全球性问题，世界银行于2008年正式提出“包容性发展”的新理念。与以往过分注重GDP增长不同，该理念倡导“全体参与-全体分享”。而“全体参与”在经济发展维度则体现为充分就业。实现充分就业的难点在于为社会中失去就业机会的弱势群体创造更多的就业机会。随着经济的发展，服务业在吸纳就业方面的表现明显优于其他行业，因此，包容性发展的实现离不开服务业。由于服务业是三次产业之一，因而，包容性发展的实现与产业政策有关，并要求包容性发展的服务业政策（简称包容性服务业政策）应促进服务业结构升级和就业增长“双目标”的实现。然而，现有研究对于 “包容性发展视域下服务业政策对就业效应”这一交叉领域的研究明显关注不足。究其原因，一方面，包容性发展的理论本身还处在发展完善的过程中，且组成包容性服务业政策的要素是多元的，许多研究认为产业政策对包容性发展的影响较为间接；另一方面，服务业政策对就业的效应也是多元的，研究这一多元输入-多元输出问题，目前缺乏恰当的理论框架及其有效的测度系统。因此，对包容性视域下服务业政策对就业的效应进行定量研究具有重大意义。

本研究的目的和价值就在弥补上述理论研究的不足之处，量化地揭示包容性发展视域下服务业政策对就业的效应。为此，必须先研究清楚其作用机制，并基于作用机制设计一种能够处理多元输入、多元输出的测度系统才能实现研究目标。

   为此，本研究设定要解决的研究问题包括：

（1）服务业政策对就业的作用机制是什么？

（2）如何评估测度服务业政策对就业的作用？

（3）包容性发展的服务业政策有什么特征？

（4）如何评估测度“包容性发展的服务业政策”对就业的效应？

   为解决上述问题，本书先基于按内容对产业政策分类的方法，将服务业政策分为五类。接着分别论证每一类政策对就业的作用机制，最后归纳得出具有普适性的两种机制：“服务业政策对就业的作用机制”和“包容性视域下服务业政策对就业的作用机制”；指出了“包容性服务业政策体系”与“服务业政策体系”的结构区别，并在此基础上，以数据包络分析法（DEA）、马奎斯指数分析法为引擎，设计了具有普适性的“服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”和“包容性发展视域下服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”。这两个测度系统都可以测度多元输入对多元输出的静态效率，也可以测度效率随时间的动态变动程度。之后，本研究应用此系统分别对2008-2019年间，新加坡服务业在产业层面和内部行业层面的“服务业政策”及“包容性服务业政策”对就业的相对效率进行了横向静态和纵向动态的测度评估及比较研究，提出并验证了18个核心假设。此后，本书也应用了质性比较分析法（QCA）研究了政策路径，回答了如何“协同”包容性服务业政策以优化效应的问题。最后，为了揭示企业高管的政策感知度与政策效应之相关性，本书还运用了半结构访谈法，对新加坡当地服务业企业的高管对包容性服务业政策的感知度进行了研究。在结论部分，本书基于研究发现提出了政策建议。

本研究的主要发现包括：

（1）   从新加坡的政策实践中归纳出“协同型”的“包容性服务业政策体系”。实测数据证明了这种“协同型”的“包容性服务业政策体系”在整体上对促进就业更有效率。这一过程实质上是一种政策体系结构的优化升级，它能更好地配合产业结构、服务业结构的优化升级，解决结构性失业问题。

（2）   对新加坡“包容性服务业政策”对就业效应的测度发现：总体上看，新加坡政府的包容性服务业政策对服务业整体就业的效应是积极的。政策的平均综合效率达99.9%。对就业数量和质量的平均综合效率分别都达到99.8%。

（3）   在新加坡的“协同型”的“包容性服务业政策体系”中，按照各项政策对就业的平均综合效率值从大到小排列，依次是：服务业结构政策，服务业国际竞争力政策，包容性因素，服务业技术政策，服务业区域政策，服务业组织政策。这说明，新加坡的政策对服务业结构优化的效果最好。而产业结构能实现持续优化，说明其就业结构可以及时跟进，以形成良性的持续优化循环。

（4）   新加坡“包容性服务业政策体系”中，单一的“包容性因素”对于直接帮助整体就业的影响效率不高，虽然它实际上解决了一些中低端劳动力的就业问题，对包容性有所贡献，但所增加的就业量占比很小。可能的解释是新加坡社会的就业市场机制较为健全，已经基本达到充分就业（1990年至2020年的平均失业率是3.3%），即使有结构性失业，其占比也不大。

（5）   新加坡“包容性服务业政策体系”对现代服务业（包括：信息通信业、金融保险业和商业服务业）、传统服务业（包括：批发零售业、运输存储业、住宿食品业）的就业效应明显。政策的平均综合效率值都在99.6%以上。

（6）   新加坡“包容性服务业政策体系”对就业效应的动态变化呈不规则跳动性，效率的均值小于1，总体呈下降趋势。主要原因是技术进步不稳定。这与克鲁格曼（1994）的研究结论一致，他认为，新加坡的经济成长主要是通过调动资源，而不是通过提高生产效率。这从长远来看，并不利于产业结构可持续的升级。说明新加坡服务业政策的动态效率仍有提升的空间。

（7） 应用质性比较分析法（QCA）研究表明，新加坡政府“协同型”的“包容性服务业政策体系”是一个内部互相关联的整体，由于经济社会政策资源的有限性，政府在不同的时期，不同的情形下可以科学地调整各项服务业政策和包容性因素的强度，形成科学的政策组合，最大程度地优化对就业的效应。

（8）运用半结构访谈法对20家新加坡当地服务业企业的高管的访谈研究表明，他们对于包容性发展视域下新加坡各项服务业政策对就业效应的感知度，与相应的各项政策对服务业新增就业数(BEM)效应的测度值，在一定程度上保持了一致性。其中，企业主们对产业组织政策的感知度最高，达到71%。说明大部分企业主认同新加坡市场是一个公平竞争的市场。对产业结构政策的感知度次之，达到68%。说明多数企业主还是希望本企业能够参与产业结构升级并从中受益。

本研究的理论贡献包括：

（1）深化了包容性发展与产业政策交叉领域的理论研究。

本书基于现有理论，结合包容性发展的理论和产业政策理论，深入研究了现有文献关注不足的交叉领域：即包容性发展视域下，服务政策对就业的效应。建立了具有普适性的两种作用机制：①“服务业政策对就业的作用机制”，②“包容性视域下服务业政策对就业的作用机制”。并在此基础上，设计了以数据包络分析法和马奎斯效率指数分析法为引擎的“服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”和“包容性服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”。这两个系统都可以测度政策的静态和动态效率值，及时反馈给政策制定者参考，也为类似的政策评估测度问题提供了一套新的解决方案，在一定程度上弥补了现有研究的不足。

（2）拓宽了传统的城市管理研究领域。

随着城市化率的不断提高，城市管理问题已经从城市层面上升到国家政策层面的高度。本书基于城市国家新加坡的城市管理实践，探索了包容性发展视域下服务业政策对就业的效应，为城市政府更好地管理城市提供了科学依据，这也拓宽了传统的城市管理研究领域。

（3）首次提出了“协同型”的“包容性服务业政策体系”的概念。

本书基于对新加坡的实证研究，从政策体系结构上区分了“服务业政策体系”和“包容性服务业政策体系”，指出两者是不同结构的政策体系。后者是前者增加了“包容性政策因素”的政策体系，并且比前者对促进就业有更好的效应。这实质上是产业政策体系的结构升级，以此带动就业结构的升级。这样才能确保产业结构的持续升级。这一结论也体现了唯物史观的基本原理，即生产关系由生产力决定，且必须适应生产力的发展。

本书在研究方法方面的贡献包括：

（1）改进了现有的政策效应的研究方法。

现有的政策效应评估方法通常注重政策的绝对效应或政策对单一目标变量的影响或政策对象所处的某种状态的变化，容易忽略政策效应在时间序列上所产生的动态、多个结果变量的相对变化。而本研究采用的马奎斯DEA分析法可以测度政策效应在时间序列上所产生的动态、多个结果变量的相对变化，从而发现政策效率在较长时间段内的进步或退步趋势，供政策制定者借鉴。这改进了现有的政策效应的研究方法，可以使服务业政策的效应评估更趋完善，也可以扩展应用到其他政策效应评估领域之中。

（2）首次运用本书的测度系统对新加坡进行了评估测度

本书首次运用“服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”和“包容性服务业政策对就业的效应测度系统”对新加坡的相关数据进行了评估测度，并实证了“包容性服务业政策体系” 比“服务业政策体系”对促进就业有更好的效应。

由于本书是基于新加坡的实证研究，因而无论从产业结构、就业结构、政治体制、政府资源、人口规模、市场规模，还是从创新能力、城市规模、行政体系等视角来看，一定存在局限性。为此，本书在最后也提出了五点不足与对未来研究的展望。

希望本书为各级政策制定者、产业开发者和即将就业的大专院校毕业生在政策决策、投融资决策和择业决策中提供科学化决策的参考。

Existing research believes that with the continuous economic development of traditional poor countries and catching up with Western developed countries, the degree of inequality between countries has been declining. However, inequality within almost every country is deepening. In many countries, with the upgrading of industrial structure, the increase of urbanization rate and economic growth, the unemployment rate is also rising, and the coexistence of "poor and busy" and "rich and idle" is becoming more and more serious.

In the face of the above-mentioned global issues, the World Bank formally put forward the new concept of "inclusive development" in 2008. Different from the previous excessive emphasis on GDP growth, this concept advocates "all participation-all sharing". And "all participation" in the dimension of economic development is reflected in full employment. The difficulty in achieving full employment lies in creating more employment opportunities for the disadvantaged groups in society who have lost employment opportunities. With the development of the economy, the service industry is significantly better than other industries in absorbing employment. Therefore, the realization of inclusive development cannot be separated from the service industry. Since the service industry is one of the three industries, the realization of inclusive development is related to industrial policies, and the service industry policy that requires inclusive development (referred to as the inclusive service industry policy) should promote the realization of both structural upgrading of the service industry and employment growth. However, the existing research has obviously paid insufficient attention to the research on the cross-cutting field of "service industry policy on employment effects from the perspective of inclusive development". The reasons are that, on the one hand, the theory of inclusive development itself is still in the process of development and improvement, and the elements that make up inclusive service industry policies are diverse. Many studies believe that the impact of industrial policies on inclusive development is relatively indirect; On the one hand, the effects of service industry policies on employment are also diverse. To study this multiple input-multiple output problem, there is currently a lack of an appropriate theoretical framework and an effective measurement system. Therefore, it is of great significance to conduct quantitative research on the effect of service industry policies on employment under the perspective of inclusiveness.

The purpose and value of this research is to make up for the shortcomings of the above theoretical research, and quantitatively reveal the effect of service industry policies on employment in the perspective of inclusive development. For this reason, we must first study its mechanism of action, and design a measurement system based on the mechanism of action that can handle multiple inputs and multiple outputs in order to achieve the research goals.

To this end, the research questions set to be solved in this study include:

(1) What is the mechanism of service industry policy on employment?

(2) How to evaluate and measure the effect of service industry policies on employment?

(3) What are the characteristics of an inclusive service industry policy?

(4) How to evaluate and measure the effect of inclusive development of service industry policies on employment?

This book starts with the classification of service industry policies, and classifies service industry policies into five categories with reference to the classification of industrial policies. Then, respectively, demonstrate the mechanism of each type of policy on employment. Finally, it summarizes the universal "service industry policy's mechanism for employment" and "service industry policy's mechanism for employment from the perspective of inclusiveness." Pointed out the difference of "Inclusive service industry policy system" and "Service industry policy system". On this basis, the data envelopment analysis method (DEA) and Marquis index analysis method are combined to design a universal "Measurement System of the Effect of Service Industry Policy on Employment" and "A system for measuring the effect of service industry policies on employment from the perspective of inclusive development." Both of these measurement systems can measure the static efficiency of multiple inputs to multiple outputs, and can also measure the degree of dynamic changes in efficiency over time. Later, this research applied this system to the relative efficiency of employment caused by "service industry policies" and "inclusive service industry policies” of the industry-level and internal industry-level in Singapore's service industry during the period from 2008 to 2019. Horizontal and static, longitudinal and dynamic measurement, evaluation, and comparative studies are carried out separately. 18 core hypotheses were proposed and verified. Since then, This book has also applied qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to study the policy path and answered the question of how to "integrate" the inclusive service industry policies to optimize the effect. Finally, in order to reveal the correlation between the policy perception of corporate executives and policy effects, this paper also uses a semi-structured interview method to study the perception of inclusive service industry policies by senior executives of local service companies in Singapore. In the conclusion part, This book puts forward policy recommendations based on the research findings.

The main findings of this research include:

(1) Summarized from Singapore’s policy practice an “integrated” “inclusive service industry policy system”. The measured data proves that this “integrated” “inclusive service industry policy system” is more efficient in promoting employment as a whole. Adding "inclusive policy factors" to the "service industry policy system structure" results in a new "inclusive service industry policy system structure". This process is essentially an optimization and upgrading of the policy system structure, which can be better Cooperate with the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and service industry structure to solve the problem of structural unemployment.

(2) After measuring the effect of Singapore's inclusive service industry policy on employment, it is found that, on the whole, the Singapore government's inclusive service industry policy has a positive effect on the overall employment of the service industry. The average overall efficiency of the policy is 99.9%. The average overall efficiency for the quantity and quality of employment respectively reached 99.8%.

(3) In Singapore’s“integrated” “inclusive service industry policy system”, according to the average comprehensive efficiency value of each policy on employment, the order is as follows: service industry structure policy, service industry international competitiveness policy, Inclusive factors, service industry technology policy, service industry regional policy, service industry organization policy. It shows that the Singapore government has done the best in optimizing the structure of the service industry. The continuous optimization of the industrial structure indicates that its employment structure can follow up the industrial structure in time to form a virtuous continuous optimization cycle.

(4) The actual measurement found that the “inclusive factor” in Singapore’s inclusive service industry policy system is not effective in directly helping employment, although it actually solves the employment problem of some low-end and middle-end laborers. This contributes to inclusiveness, but the increase in employment is very small. The possible explanation is that the labor market mechanism in Singapore society is relatively sound, and it has basically reached full employment (the average unemployment rate from 1990 to 2020 is 3.3%), even if there is structural unemployment, its proportion is not large.

(5) The actual measurement found that Singapore’s inclusive service industry policy system affected obviously on employment of the modern service industry (represented by the information and communication industry, finance and insurance industry, and business service industry) and traditional service industry (represented by the wholesale and retail industry, transportation storage industry, and accommodation and food industry).  The average comprehensive efficiency value of the policy was above 99.6%.

(6) The actual measurement found that the dynamic changes in the employment effect of Singapore's inclusive service industry policy system are irregularly beating. The average efficiency is less than 1, and the overall trend is downward. The main reason is that technological progress is unstable. This is consistent with the research conclusion of Krugman (1994) that Singapore’s economic growth is mainly through the mobilization of resources, rather than through the improvement of production efficiency. According to existing research, this is not conducive to the continuous improvement of the industrial structure in the long run. It shows that the dynamic efficiency of Singapore's service industry policy still has room for improvement.

(7) The application of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) research shows that the Singapore government’s“integrated” “inclusive service industry policy system” is interconnected. Due to the limited resources of economic and social policies, the government has different policies in different periods. Under the circumstances, the intensity of various service industry policies and inclusive factors can be adjusted scientifically, a scientific policy combination can be formed, and the effect on employment can be optimized.

(8) Using the semi-structured interview method to conduct interviews with the executives of 20 local service industry companies in Singapore, the research shows that their perception of the employment effects of various service industry policies in Singapore from the perspective of inclusive development and the DEA measurement efficiency values of the effect of  various policies of the inclusive industrial policy on the number of new jobs in service industry (BEM) have maintained consistency to a certain extent. Among them, business owners have the highest perception of industrial organization policies, reaching 71%. It shows that most business owners agree that the Singapore market is a fair and competitive market. Perception of industrial structure policies is the next highest, reaching 68%. It shows that most business owners still hope that their enterprises can participate in the upgrading of industrial structure and benefit from it.

The theoretical contributions of this research include:

(1) Deepen theoretical research.

This book is based on existing theories, combined with theories of inclusive development and industrial policy, has deeply studied the areas where the above two theories are not paying enough attention, that is, the effect of service policy on employment under the perspective of inclusive development. This book establishes the universal "service industry policy's mechanism for employment" and "service industry policy's mechanism for employment from the perspective of inclusiveness". And on this basis, designed "Measurement System of the Effect of Service Industry Policy on Employment" and "A system for measuring the effects of inclusive service industry policies on employment." The systems use the data envelopment analysis method and the Marquis efficiency index analysis method as the engine, and can measure the static and dynamic efficiency values of policies, and provide timely feedback to policy makers for reference. It also provides a set of new solutions for similar policy evaluation and measurement problems.

(2) Broaden the field of research in traditional urban management

With the continuous increase of urbanization rate, the problem of urban management has risen from the city level to the height of the national policy level. Based on the urban management practice of Singapore, a city-state, This book explores the effect of service industry policies on employment from the perspective of inclusive development, provides a scientific basis for the city government to better manage the city, which also broadens the traditional urban management research field.

(3) The concept of the“integrated” “inclusive service industry policy system” was put forward for the first time.

Based on the empirical research on Singapore, This book distinguishes the "service industry policy system" and the "inclusive service industry policy system" from the policy system structure, and points out that the two are policy systems with different structures. The latter is a policy system in which the former integrated the "inclusive policy factors" and has a better effect on promoting employment than the former. This is essentially the structural upgrade of the industrial policy system to promote the upgrade of the employment structure. Only in this way can we ensure the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure. This conclusion also reflects the basic principle of historical materialism, that is, production relations are determined by productivity and must adapt to the development of productivity.

The contributions of this paper in research methods include:

(1) A useful supplement to the previous theories and methods of studying policy effects.

Existing policy effect evaluation methods usually focus on the absolute effect of the policy or the impact of the policy on a single target variable or the change of a certain state of the policy object. It is easy to ignore the dynamic and relative changes of multiple outcome variables produced by the policy effect. In time series. The Marquis DEA analysis method used in this study can measure the dynamic and relative changes of multiple outcome variables in the time series of policy effects, so as to find the trend of improvement or regression in policy efficiency over a longer period of time. This is for policy makers to learn from. This improves the existing research methods of policy effects, can make the effect evaluation of service industry policies more perfect, and can also be extended to other areas of policy effect evaluation.

(2) For the first time, the measurement system of This book was used to evaluate the data of Singapore

For the first time, This book uses the "Measurement System of the Effect of Service Industry Policy on Employment" and the "Measurement System of the Effect of Inclusive Service Industry Policy on Employment" to evaluate the relevant data in Singapore, and it is proved that the "inclusive service industry policy system" has a better effect on promoting employment than the "service industry policy system".

Since this dissertation is based on empirical research in Singapore, there must be limitations no matter from the perspectives of industrial structure, employment structure, political system, government resources, population size, market size, or innovation capability, city size, administrative system, etc. For this reason, this dissertation also puts forward five shortcomings and prospects for future research at the end.

It is hoped that this book will provide scientific decision-making references for policy makers at all levels, industry developers, and college graduates who are about to find jobs, in policy decisions, investment and financing decisions, and career decisions.

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